Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 1.277954 1.450805 1.634336 1.843283 2.074123 2.320901 2.604214
2025-01-12 1.007148 1.237900 1.498907 1.814354 2.183518 2.600079 3.103789
2025-01-19 0.796521 1.057791 1.371845 1.773315 2.268691 2.855504 3.598356
2025-01-26 0.667292 0.954515 1.320233 1.812720 2.450327 3.239054 4.278414
2025-02-02 0.558141 0.859803 1.266316 1.841917 2.621808 3.626188 4.999300
2025-02-09 0.461877 0.766836 1.201692 1.848380 2.763660 3.988057 5.720213
2025-02-16 0.385549 0.689517 1.147636 1.861777 2.915003 4.374571 6.505219
2025-02-23 0.309732 0.599106 1.061072 1.816644 2.977907 4.644285 7.152384
2025-03-02 0.241795 0.508063 0.959367 1.734546 2.976208 4.820337 7.679998
2025-03-09 0.200763 0.455569 0.911768 1.730560 3.090816 5.172528 8.484570
2025-03-16 0.163423 0.401794 0.853270 1.700300 3.159361 5.458825 9.209579
2025-03-23 0.142968 0.377241 0.843178 1.751045 3.363296 5.967015 10.302130
2025-03-30 0.112846 0.326002 0.776910 1.697687 3.394901 6.217885 11.034930
2025-04-06 0.092078 0.290362 0.735126 1.683943 3.493635 6.585275 11.978359
2025-04-13 0.073979 0.255825 0.689195 1.655645 3.563025 6.908799 12.872595
2025-04-20 0.064066 0.239847 0.680792 1.701080 3.771925 7.483173 14.214419
2025-04-27 0.054941 0.223221 0.667873 1.735326 3.962592 8.038674 15.557357
2025-05-04 0.046081 0.204297 0.645774 1.746646 4.109236 8.525414 16.810341
2025-05-11 0.038900 0.188137 0.627377 1.763510 4.268004 9.043780 18.146370
2025-05-18 0.030872 0.165480 0.586940 1.723526 4.305740 9.340489 19.106457
2025-05-25 0.023356 0.140814 0.534883 1.647349 4.258539 9.472454 19.776104
2025-06-01 0.019228 0.127977 0.514157 1.645390 4.370570 9.915381 21.034186
2025-06-08 0.015292 0.113647 0.485252 1.617819 4.422467 10.242878 22.093804